Financial Markets of the World

世界金融市

——喬治·索羅斯2009年在中歐大學(xué)發(fā)表的演講

喬治·索羅斯是著名的貨幣投機(jī)家、股票投資者、慈善家和政治行動(dòng)主義者。本文是他于2009年10月27日在中歐大學(xué)為期一周的講座系列之一。該演講融入了金融市場的幾個(gè)概念，分析了泡沫理論以及泡沫爆破之后引發(fā)的一系列危機(jī)及其破壞性影響，此外，他也對(duì)自己的理論以及其意義進(jìn)行了介紹。

經(jīng)典再現(xiàn)

Today I’ll apply the concepts introduced yesterday—fallibility, reflexivity, andthe human uncertainty principal—to the financial markets. Please brace yourselves,because I’ll pack the experience of a lifetime into this one lecture.

Financial markets provide an excellent laboratory for testing the ideas that I put forward inan abstract form yesterday. The course of events is easier to observe than in most other places.

Many of the facts take a quantitative form, and the data are well recorded and well preserved.

The opportunity for testing occurs because my interpretation of financial markets directlycontradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which has been the prevailing theory aboutfinancial markets. That theory claims that markets tend towards equilibrium; deviationsoccur in a random fashion and can be attributed to extraneous shocks. If that theory is valid,mine is false—and vice versa.

今天我將會(huì)把昨天介紹過的幾個(gè)概念——不可靠性、自反性以及人為的不確定性——融入到今天關(guān)于金融市場的講座中來。請(qǐng)大家振作精神，因?yàn)榻裉煳覍盐耶吷慕?jīng)驗(yàn)融入到這堂演講中。

金融市場是檢驗(yàn)昨天我所提出的抽象概念是否正確的絕佳實(shí)驗(yàn)室。在這里觀察事情的發(fā)展比在其他地方更加容易。我們對(duì)很多事都進(jìn)行了定量分析，其數(shù)據(jù)的記錄和保存也很完整?，F(xiàn)在，檢驗(yàn)我的理論的機(jī)會(huì)來臨了，因?yàn)樗c有效市場假說顯然是相悖的。有效市場假說是金融市場最廣為流傳的理論，它認(rèn)為市場可以通過自行調(diào)節(jié)達(dá)到平衡，偏離的發(fā)生是隨機(jī)的，并且容易受外來因素的影響。如果這個(gè)理論是正確的話，那么我的就是錯(cuò)的，反之亦然。

fallibility [7fAlE5bilEti] n. 易誤，不可靠 reflexivity [5ri7flekiviti] n. 自反性hypothesis [hai5pCWisis] n. 假設(shè) prevail [pri5vel] vi. 盛行equilibrium [7ikwE5libriEm] 平衡 deviation [7di:vi5eiFEn] n. 差異，偏差extraneous [ek5streinjEs] adj. 外來的